Mondrian's Blog

[bob_32_116]

"Gambling only pays when you're winning"

(Genesis - "I Know What I Like")

[Stephynbouby]

"Gambling only pays when you're winning"

(Genesis - "I Know What I Like")

Please see my earlier post on gambling.

[Stephynbouby]

I have scanned the racing pages several times today and cannot find a selection that I am happy to risk my hard-earned on today. Therefore, there are no selections today.

See you on the morrow.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

I have scanned the racing pages several times today and cannot find a selection that I am happy to risk my hard-earned on today. Therefore, there are no selections today.

See you on the morrow.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

There's two selections today.

The first runs in the 2:20 at Naas and is Carrigmoorna Rock. The odds are currently 2/1. The favourite, Gitane Du Berlais is odds on at 4/5 and has been beaten favourite in her last six starts. With Ruby Walsh steering her home, this could be a case of 7th time lucky and our lad could well be struggling. Also, even if Gitane Du Berlais fails again, it doesn't mean that our horse will win. So, if the odds on our horse falls below 2/1 or stays at 2/1, we should lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

The second runs in the 3:40 at Chelmsford and is Big Time. The odds are currently 7/2. The race is open in that almost anything could win. If Big Time's odds come down to 3/1 or less, lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

There's two selections today.

The first runs in the 2:20 at Naas and is Carrigmoorna Rock. The odds are currently 2/1. The favourite, Gitane Du Berlais is odds on at 4/5 and has been beaten favourite in her last six starts. With Ruby Walsh steering her home, this could be a case of 7th time lucky and our lad could well be struggling. Also, even if Gitane Du Berlais fails again, it doesn't mean that our horse will win. So, if the odds on our horse falls below 2/1 or stays at 2/1, we should lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

The second runs in the 3:40 at Chelmsford and is Big Time. The odds are currently 7/2. The race is open in that almost anything could win. If Big Time's odds come down to 3/1 or less, lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.

Smiles.

The odds of our first horse (Carrigmoorna Rock) fell to 13/8 and therefore it was a bet and our lad had to lose for us to win since it was a lay bet.

Our lad was up there until the closing stages where he faltered. As I thought, it was 7th. time lucky for the favourite, Gitane Du Berlais, who won a shade cosily by 7 lengths.

The odds of our second horse (Big Time) fell to 3/1 and therefore it was a bet and our lad had to lose for us to win since it was a lay bet.

Our lad was up there until the closing stages where he faltered and didn't even place.

That's two successes out of two for today.

Here's the story so far:

Number of Tips: 5
Number of No Bets: 1

Winning Bets: 3
Losing Bets: 1

Strike Rate: 75%

Profit/Loss: +£0.27

Return on Investment: +6.75%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

We are now in profit.

See you on the morrow.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

I have scanned the racing pages several times today and cannot find a selection that I am happy to risk my hard-earned on today. Therefore, there are no selections today.

See you on the morrow.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

I scanned the sports pages several times today and found something that is masquerading as racing. Before it could be referred to as dire, there would have to be a significant improvement. They are little more than egg and spoon races. I cannot and will not risk my hard-earned on today's manure. Therefore, there are no selections today.

See you on the morrow.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

Today’s selection, Captain Redbeard, runs in the 4:35 at Carlisle. It’s top rated but it's also top weight and that could prove telling in the closing stages of the race in ground which is described by the clerk of the course as Heavy. The forecast odds are 5/2 and I reckon that they are about right. If the odds fall to less than 5/2, I reckon there will be some value in laying it to lose, especially as the trainer is a muppet. If the odds, close to the off, are 5/2 or greater, I’d pass, not bet and await a better opportunity.

Today’s selection: Captain Redbeard - 4:35 Carlisle LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS < 5/2.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.

[Stephynbouby]

Today’s selection, Captain Redbeard, runs in the 4:35 at Carlisle. It’s top rated but it's also top weight and that could prove telling in the closing stages of the race in ground which is described by the clerk of the course as Heavy. The forecast odds are 5/2 and I reckon that they are about right. If the odds fall to less than 5/2, I reckon there will be some value in laying it to lose, especially as the trainer is a muppet. If the odds, close to the off, are 5/2 or greater, I’d pass, not bet and await a better opportunity.

Today’s selection: Captain Redbeard - 4:35 Carlisle LAY TO LOSE IF ODDS < 5/2.

I will post the results and a commentary of the race once I have the result.

As I thought, for much of the race, our lad looked a certain winner but the state of the ground and his weight took it's toll and our selection faded towards the latter stages of the race and didn't even place. However, in spite of this, it was a no bet because the odds were too high at 3/1.

Our lad was up there until the closing stages where he faltered and didn't even place.

Here's the story so far:

Number of Tips: 6
Number of No Bets: 2

Winning Bets: 3
Losing Bets: 1

Strike Rate: 75%

Profit/Loss: +£0.27

Return on Investment: +6.75%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

We are now in profit.

See you on the morrow.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

Malchicks, if we were to double the quality of today's racing, it would then be classed as mediocre and I would then try and select a horse. Sadly, that's not going to happen. Today's racing is dire. I'm not for risking my hard-earned today.

See you on the morrow.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

There's a potential selection running at Kempton today. However, the problem is that it's top-rated in the race and doesn't carry top weight. Therefore, it could well win and, if not, could well come close. Such activities are not good for my heart and I'd prefer to side-step the horse and race for Justin's sake. You know - Justin - Justin Case.

See you on the morrow my malchicks.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

The horse that I was going to put forward today but changed my mind about was Bishops Court which ran in the 2:40 at Kempton which has just finished. As I thought, it was there or there abouts for much of the race and only floundered late on when his jockey asked the horse for an effort to win the race. Had he not floundered, the horse would have won and we would have been out of pocket.

I'd rather be safe than sorry.

See you on the morrow.

[Stephynbouby]

There's a potential selection running at Lingfield today. However, when selecting a losing horse, there has to be something in the race that is capable of beating it and there's the issue. Although my selection shouldn't win, there's nothing running in the race that is capable of beating it. Therefore, I'd rather not risk my hard-earned today.

See you on the morrow my malchicks.

Smiles.

[Stephynbouby]

The potential selection that ran at Lingfield today was Rojina. It ran in the 4:50. It looked a winner all the way but faded and came 2nd. However, it was a big risk and therefore best avoided.

See you on the morrow my malchicks.

Smiles.