Mondrian's Blog

[Stephynbouby]

Lady: Do you drink?
Man: Yes
Lady: How much a day?
Man: a 6 pack
Lady: How much per 6 pack
Man: about $10.00
Lady: And how long have you been drinking?
Man: 15 years
Lady: So a 6 pack cost $10.00 and you have a 6 pack a day which puts your spending each month at $300. In one year, it would be $3600 correct?
Man: Correct
Lady: If in 1 year you spend $3600 not accounting for inflation, the past 15 years puts your spending at $54,000 correct.
Man: Correct
Lady: Do you know that if you hadn't drank, that money could have been put in a step-up interest savings account and after accounting for compound interest for the past 15 years, you could have now bought a Ferrari?
Man: Do you drink?
Lady: No
Man: Where's your Ferrari then?

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

A lawyer and a senior citizen are sitting next to each other on a long flight.

The lawyer is thinking that pensioners are so dumb that he could get one over on them easily.

So, the lawyer asks if the pensioner would like to play a fun game.

The pensioner is tired and just wants to take a nap, so he politely declines and tries to catch a few winks.

The lawyer persists, saying that the game is a lot of fun...."I ask you a question, and if you don't know the answer, you pay me only £5.00. Then you ask me one, and if I don't know the answer, I will pay you £500.00," he says.

This catches the pensioner's attention and, to keep the lawyer quiet, he agrees to play the game.

The lawyer asks the first question. "What's the distance from the Earth to the Moon?"

The pensioner doesn't say a word, but reaches into his pocket, pulls out a five-Pound note, and hands it to the lawyer.

Now, it's the pensioner's turn. He asks the lawyer, "What goes up a hill with three legs, and comes down with four?"

The lawyer uses his laptop to search all references he can find on the Net.

He sends E-mails to all the smart friends he knows; all to no avail. After an hour of searching, he finally gives up.

He wakes the pensioner and hands him £500.00. The pensioner pockets the £500.00 and goes right back to sleep.

The lawyer is going nuts not knowing the answer. He wakes the pensioner up and asks, "Well, so what goes up a hill with three legs and comes down with four?"

The pensioner reaches into his pocket, hands the lawyer £5.00 and goes back to sleep.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

"Hello, Señor Bob? This is Ernesto, the caretaker at your country house."

"Ah yes, Ernesto. What can I do for you? Is there a problem?"

"Um, I am just calling to advise you, Señor Bob, that your parrot, he is dead".

"My parrot? Dead? The one that won the International competition?"

"Si, Señor, that's the one."

"Damn! That's a pity! I spent a small fortune on that bird. What did he die from?"

"From eating the rotten meat, Señor Bob."

"Rotten meat? Who the hell fed him rotten meat?"

"Nobody, Señor. He ate the meat of the dead horse."

"Dead horse? What dead horse?"

"The thoroughbred, Señor Bob ...."

"My prize thoroughbred is dead?"

"Yes, Señor Bob, he died from all that work pulling the water cart."

"Are you insane? What water cart?"

"The one we used to put out the fire, Señor."

"Good Lord! What fire are you talking about, man?"

"The one at your house, Señor! A candle fell and the curtains caught onfire."

"What the hell? Are you saying that my mansion is destroyed because of a candle?!"

"Yes, Señor Bob."

"But there's electricity at the house! What was the candle for?"

"For the funeral, Señor Bob ...."

"WHAT FUNERAL??!!"

"Your wife's, Señor Bob. She showed up very late one night and I thought she was a thief,
so I hit her with your new Ping G15 204g titanium head golf club with the TFC 149D graphite shaft."

SILENCE...........

LONG SILENCE.........

VERY LONG SILENCE............

"Ernesto, if you broke that driver, you're in deep doo doos."

[Stephynbouby]

There are four selections today:

The 1st runs in the 2 pm race at Ayr. The horse is called Captain Joey. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 5/2.

The 2nd runs in the 4:05 pm race at Bath. The horse is called Kenobe Star. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 6/1.

The 3rd runs in the 4:55 pm race at Ayr. The horse is called Desert Ace. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 5/1.

The 4th runs in the 7:45 pm race at Southwell. The horse is called Sarazen Bridge. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 9/2.

[Stephynbouby]

There are four selections today:

The 1st runs in the 2 pm race at Ayr. The horse is called Captain Joey. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 5/2.

The 2nd runs in the 4:05 pm race at Bath. The horse is called Kenobe Star. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 6/1.

The 3rd runs in the 4:55 pm race at Ayr. The horse is called Desert Ace. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 5/1.

The 4th runs in the 7:45 pm race at Southwell. The horse is called Sarazen Bridge. Lay it to lose if the odds close to the off are less than or equal to 9/2.

... and Captain Joey drifts out to 9/2 and didn't even place. Pity it wasn't a bet due to the drift because we would have won our bet and collected.

... and Kenobe Star drifts out to 8/1 and didn't even place. Pity it wasn't a bet due to the drift because we would have won our bet and collected.

... and Desert Ace drifts out to 11/2 and didn't even place. Pity it wasn't a bet due to the drift because we would have won our bet and collected.

... and Sarazen Bridge gets sent off the 4/1 2nd favourite so it was a bet. Fortunately, it didn't even place and we collected.

Here's the stats:

Number of Tips: 66
Number of No Bets: 42

Winning Bets: 18
Losing Bets: 6

Strike Rate: 75.00%

Profit/Loss: £1.46

Return on Investment: 6.08%

The above is based on a £1 stake and 5% commission.

It's still early days with the system.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[RandallSes]

Hi I am not a layer and I like a bet with your racing knowledge can you post a tip to have a interest in.

[Stephynbouby]

Hi I am not a layer and I like a bet with your racing knowledge can you post a tip to have a interest in.

Hi Sean

I have several degrees. In spite of that, when I found myself in the wrong place at the wrong time at the ripe old age of 50, I found that no one wanted my skills anymore.

I could have bitched and moaned and become a doley and sponged off society for the rest of my life. However, I had more self-respect than that and so became a self-employed 'quant'. This is someone who analyses large volumes of data in order to identify a bias that can be financially exploited.

I just had 3 problems:

1. Although I had maths skills, they were in the pure and applied side. Quants need statistical skills. So, I set about developing them.

2. In order to financially exploit a bias, one needs to have in-depth knowledge of the area to be exploited. I chose horse racing and the UK stock market because they fitted well together, strangely enough. Unfortunately, I knew less than zero about either. So, I set about learning about them.

3. Gambling is a complex world all of its own of which I knew little of. So, I set about learning about that area too.

I was spending up to 20 hrs per day 7 days per week for months on end learning the skills that I needed to ply my trade. One evening, I collapsed twice and ended up in hospital with exhaustion. I also ended up in severe pain with sciatica.

During this time, I wrote a book on gambling theory, wrote lots of articles for web sites and proofed 3rd-party betting systems. However, I never placed a bet.

I've now analysed every single horse race that's been held in the UK and Ireland since 1st January 2008 and many of the important races held world-wide. I have now found several biases that can be financially exploited.

I am happy to share my lays because the longest losing run is very small and losses can be relatively quickly recovered, as you have been able to observe.

Backing systems are a different kettle of fish altogether. Losing runs can be up to 30 long. They require patience, belief, knowledge, experience and expertise. In fact, these are the very skills which modern man no longer possesses. As such, I will not be posting any backing tips.

Also, I'm not posting lay tips to encourage gambling. I'm not a gambler (I am a quant) and neither do I wish to turn anyone else into a gambler. I'm posting lay tips to show people that there's activity on this forum and that it is not dead. I'm also posting lay tips to show that this forum no longer talks just about Bob and his music. That's been tried for long enough. It FAILED. It now talks about whatever subjects Bob's fans wish to talk about. Lay tipping is a bye-the-bye. It is a means to an end and not a means in itself.

I'm sorry if this isn't what you want to hear.

If you PM me with your email address, I will happily send you a complimentary copy of my book. You may then understand why it is that 98% of gamblers lose money.

[Stephynbouby]

Someone told Donald Trump, when his car wouldn’t start, that it was probably due to a flat battery. He was last seen going off to buy a foot pump.

[RandallSes]

Thanks for that I am not a gambler I just play at gambling a euro here or there but I do love horse racing as a sport I keep it simple have my own little systems that serves me well that said I will still read your post and see what way it fits with my little system as Bob would say Keep on Keeping on.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Previctorious. It runs in the 7:40 race at Clonmel. If the odds, close to the off, are less than or equal to 15/2, then lay it to lose.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Previctorious. It runs in the 7:40 race at Clonmel. If the odds, close to the off, are less than or equal to 15/2, then lay it to lose.

... and Previctorious drifts out to 10/1 and didn't even place. Pity it wasn't a bet due to the drift because we would have won our bet and collected.

Here's the stats:

Number of Tips: 67
Number of No Bets: 43

Winning Bets: 18
Losing Bets: 6

Strike Rate: 75.00%

Profit/Loss: £1.46

Return on Investment: 6.08%

The above is based on a £1 stake and 5% commission.

It's still early days with the system.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

[Stephynbouby]

Someone asked Donald Trump why he was still staring at a can of frozen orange juice after two hours. “Because”, he said “it says on the can ‘Concentrate’”.