Mondrian's Blog

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Skipping games you thought that you'd forgotten". It spends two and a bit pages lamenting about types of skipping games and the rhymes that used to be uttered by countless generations of children in the schoolyards of yore. That brings me nicely to the 4:35 at Wolverhampton today. An egg and spoon race if ever there was. Will our selection Gorokai be skipping along with his man in the pedals Jamie Spencer or will he be strung out-the-back with the washing? I think that it's worth a punt. If the odds of Gorokai are < 3/1, lay it to lose. Otherwise, pass the bet and let nature take its course.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Skipping games you thought that you'd forgotten". It spends two and a bit pages lamenting about types of skipping games and the rhymes that used to be uttered by countless generations of children in the schoolyards of yore. That brings me nicely to the 4:35 at Wolverhampton today. An egg and spoon race if ever there was. Will our selection Gorokai be skipping along with his man in the pedals Jamie Spencer or will he be strung out-the-back with the washing? I think that it's worth a punt. If the odds of Gorokai are < 3/1, lay it to lose. Otherwise, pass the bet and let nature take its course.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

Although Gorokai came nowhere, the odds increased to 3/1 and was therefore a no bet. Pity. Still, betting on a horse with no value is stupid.

Here's the stats:

Number of Tips: 13
Number of No Bets: 7

Winning Bets: 5
Losing Bets: 1

Strike Rate: 83.34%

Profit/Loss: +£0.85

Return on Investment: +14.11%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

We are now in profit.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

I guess that some of you might be wandering how come I tip all these horses to lose - which they do - but which are ignored because their odds are too high.

The answer to this little conundrum is simple. The answer is VALUE.

If a gambler doesn't get value, then, long-term, he will lose.

Let me give you an example.

Let's suppose that we have a fair coin and I offered you 10/11 on each correct call of a coin toss. Would you take the bet?

No - because the odds of calling correctly is evens and I'm offering you less. Therefore, long term, you will lose.

Let's now suppose that we have a fair coin and I now offered you evens on each correct call of a coin toss. Would you take the bet now?

No - because the best that you will do is to break-even so what is the point of risking your money.

Let's now suppose that we have a fair coin and I now offered you 11/10 on each correct call of a coin toss. Would you take the bet now?

Yes - because long-term you will win because the odds that I'm offering you is better than than the odds of correctly calling a coin toss.

And that is value in action.

If I can't get value on a bet, I'm not betting because, long-term, unless I get extremely lucky, I'm not betting. It's OK to get some luck - but when you have to rely on it to win, you are in trouble. If you get value, eventually, you will win - even with average luck.

If I lay a horse to lose, then the odds must be less than its chances of winning. If not, I'd rather not bet.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to ride a space hopper in a mini skirt". It spends two pages lamenting about the 70s, when space hoppers and mini skirts were all the rage. For the uninitiated, space hoppers were large, bright orange balls with floppy handles that one sat on and bounced around in a most un-lady-like manner. Bunty spends a couple of paragraphs explaining that the choice of knicker type is paramount. They must balance good looks with good coverage, just in case. These days, space hoppers wouldn't be allowed on Health and Safety grounds. Those living in the UK will understand this. Speaking of health and safety, today isn't a good day to be involved with betting on horses since it isn't conducive with the health and safety of our betting bank. (I like the way that I made that link, don't you?). A lot of races are too close to call and the remainder aren't.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Natural Limescale Removers". It describes how to descale, for example, baths and showers, which, apparently, should be sprayed with a 25% mixture of water and vinegar. It stresses that the baths and showers concerned should be devoid of people since it is no fun being sprayed with cold vinegar, apparently. It then suggests that one should lounge in the garden with a good book for an hour or so and then go back and wipe off said 25% mixture with a wet sponge. Well, instead of reading a good book whilst waiting for the vinegar to do its thing, it would be far better to lay Jockers and Rogues to lose the 3:30 at Sedgefield if its odds are 3/1 or less. If they are greater than 3/1 at the off, I would pass and read a good book instead. I can highly recommend "211 things a bright girl can do" by Bunty Cutler. I hope that you noticed the circular nature of this post. I'm proud of that one.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Natural Limescale Removers". It describes how to descale, for example, baths and showers, which, apparently, should be sprayed with a 25% mixture of water and vinegar. It stresses that the baths and showers concerned should be devoid of people since it is no fun being sprayed with cold vinegar, apparently. It then suggests that one should lounge in the garden with a good book for an hour or so and then go back and wipe off said 25% mixture with a wet sponge. Well, instead of reading a good book whilst waiting for the vinegar to do its thing, it would be far better to lay Jockers and Rogues to lose the 3:30 at Sedgefield if its odds are 3/1 or less. If they are greater than 3/1 at the off, I would pass and read a good book instead. I can highly recommend "211 things a bright girl can do" by Bunty Cutler. I hope that you noticed the circular nature of this post. I'm proud of that one.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

...And Jokers and Rogues was sent off the 5/2 favourite and, unfortunately for us, won.

Here's the stats:

Number of Tips: 14
Number of No Bets: 7

Winning Bets: 5
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 71.43%

Profit/Loss: -£0.15

Return on Investment: -2.14%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

We are now in a small loss.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to identify the parts of a horse". She then goes on to identify every part of a horse using a black and white diagram. Did you know, for example, that there's a name for the part between its ears? It's called the Poll. How interesting is that? The only part that I'm interested in is the muzzle because, once it has crossed the finishing line in first place, the horse is adjudged to have won and, as long as our hard-earned isn't on that particular animal, we will collect. Speaking of which, we have a selection for today. It is Kemsing and it runs in the 2:30 at Lingfield. It is looking for its hat-trick and with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, I don't reckon it will win. If the odds are 11/4 or less close to the off, lay it to lose.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to identify the parts of a horse". She then goes on to identify every part of a horse using a black and white diagram. Did you know, for example, that there's a name for the part between its ears? It's called the Poll. How interesting is that? The only part that I'm interested in is the muzzle because, once it has crossed the finishing line in first place, the horse is adjudged to have won and, as long as our hard-earned isn't on that particular animal, we will collect. Speaking of which, we have a selection for today. It is Kemsing and it runs in the 2:30 at Lingfield. It is looking for its hat-trick and with a 3lb claimer in the saddle, I don't reckon it will win. If the odds are 11/4 or less close to the off, lay it to lose.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

Fortunately, Kemsing came nowhere. Unfortunately, the odds went out to 5/1 and therefore was ignored.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 15
Number of No Bets: 8

Winning Bets: 5
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 71.43%

Profit/Loss: -£0.15

Return on Investment: -2.14%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 15

Winning Bets: 12
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 80%

Profit/Loss: +£0.49

Return on Investment: +3.28%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 3.28%.

Not ignoring value gives a loss of 2.14%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to groom a horse". It spends two pages describing how to do it and the equipment needed. Well, it matters not how well we groom Lady Llyod who runs in the 4:30 at Lingfield today, it's not gonna win. Lay it to lose if the odds fall below 9/4. Otherwise, have the good sense to leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to groom a horse". It spends two pages describing how to do it and the equipment needed. Well, it matters not how well we groom Lady Llyod who runs in the 4:30 at Lingfield today, it's not gonna win. Lay it to lose if the odds fall below 9/4. Otherwise, have the good sense to leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

Fortunately, Lady Lloyd came nowhere. Unfortunately, the odds went out to 7/2 and therefore was ignored.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 16
Number of No Bets: 9

Winning Bets: 5
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 71.43%

Profit/Loss: -£0.15

Return on Investment: -2.14%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 16

Winning Bets: 13
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 81.25%

Profit/Loss: +£0.73

Return on Investment: +4.55%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 4.55%.

Not ignoring value gives a loss of 2.14%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Lose six pounds in six hours". It suggests many ways including taking a sauna, taking a diuretic and even giving blood. Regardless of how much Reilly's Minor, which runs in the 5:20 at Fontwell, loses in weight, it won't win because it is carrying too much weight, given its ability. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less, lay it to lose otherwise leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Lose six pounds in six hours". It suggests many ways including taking a sauna, taking a diuretic and even giving blood. Regardless of how much Reilly's Minor, which runs in the 5:20 at Fontwell, loses in weight, it won't win because it is carrying too much weight, given its ability. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less, lay it to lose otherwise leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Reilly's Minor drifted out to 4/1 and so was a no bet. Unfortunately, it came 3rd.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 17
Number of No Bets: 10

Winning Bets: 5
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 71.43%

Profit/Loss: -£0.15

Return on Investment: -2.14%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 17

Winning Bets: 14
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 82.35%

Profit/Loss: +£0.93

Return on Investment: +6.00%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 6.00%.

Not ignoring value gives a loss of 2.14%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Complete Whipcraft". It suggests the following equipment is used: A whip, Sunglasses (cool), Goggles (uncool), Gloves, Jeans and a long-sleeved shirt. Well no matter how much the whip is used on today's selection, 2:20 Wolverhampton Malaysian Boley, it won't win. The best that it's managed in 5 runnings is a third and I don't expect that it will do any better today. If its odds close to the off are 3/1 or less, lay it to lose. Otherwise, pass.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "Complete Whipcraft". It suggests the following equipment is used: A whip, Sunglasses (cool), Goggles (uncool), Gloves, Jeans and a long-sleeved shirt. Well no matter how much the whip is used on today's selection, 2:20 Wolverhampton Malaysian Boley, it won't win. The best that it's managed in 5 runnings is a third and I don't expect that it will do any better today. If its odds close to the off are 3/1 or less, lay it to lose. Otherwise, pass.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Malaysian Boleh drifted out to 11/2 and was therefore ignored. Pity because it didn't even place.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 18
Number of No Bets: 11

Winning Bets: 5
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 71.43%

Profit/Loss: -£0.15

Return on Investment: -2.14%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 18

Winning Bets: 15
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 83.33%

Profit/Loss: +£1.03

Return on Investment: +6.50%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 6.50%.

Not ignoring value gives a loss of 2.14%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to be the perfect cheerleader". Well, no matter how much we may cheer on today's selection, 4:40 Lingfield - Blue Bounty, it probably won't win. In fact, it's the most trappy affair I've see in a long time. Almost anything can win this race. Our lad has won at this course before and at this distance. In his last 4 races, he's finished second twice and won last time out. However, all good things must come to an end and today may well be it. If its odds close to the off are 3/1 or less, lay it to lose. Otherwise, pass.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.