Mondrian's Blog

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to be the perfect cheerleader". Well, no matter how much we may cheer on today's selection, 4:40 Lingfield - Blue Bounty, it probably won't win. In fact, it's the most trappy affair I've see in a long time. Almost anything can win this race. Our lad has won at this course before and at this distance. In his last 4 races, he's finished second twice and won last time out. However, all good things must come to an end and today may well be it. If its odds close to the off are 3/1 or less, lay it to lose. Otherwise, pass.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Blue Bounty gets sent off at 2/1 favourite and was therefore a bet. Just as well because it came 3rd.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 19
Number of No Bets: 11

Winning Bets: 6
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 75%

Profit/Loss: +£0.26

Return on Investment: +3.25%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 19

Winning Bets: 16
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 84.21%

Profit/Loss: +£1.49

Return on Investment: +8.50%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 8.50%.

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 3.25%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Bunty Cutler's "211 things a bright girl can do" has a section in it called "How to force a cucumber". Thankfully, Bunty goes on to explain that it is just a word that refers to the acceleration of growth .... Well, no matter how much we may wish today's selection to accelerate, 5:05 Wincanton - Slidecheck, probably won't win. It looks to be carrying too much weight in ground which is soft and likely to get softer. Almost anything can win this race. If its odds close to the off are 3/1 or less, lay it to lose. Otherwise, pass.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Slidecheck drifts out to 7/1 and flies home and easy 2 length winner. Just as well it was > 3/1 and therefore got ignored. That, folks is what value is all about.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 20
Number of No Bets: 12

Winning Bets: 6
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 75%

Profit/Loss: +£0.26

Return on Investment: +3.25%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 20

Winning Bets: 16
Losing Bets: 4

Strike Rate: 80.00%

Profit/Loss: +£0.49

Return on Investment: +2.7%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 2.7%.

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 3.25%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Yesterday was my last post on this topic. I created the thread for a number of reasons, none of which had anything to do with gambling.

[Stephynbouby]

I decided to continue posting after much thought.

Today's selection is: 15:55 Taunton - Good To Know (Provided the odds fall to 3/1 or less).

As usual, I will post the result as soon as the race has finished.

[Stephynbouby]

I decided to continue posting after much thought.

Today's selection is: 15:55 Taunton - Good To Know (Provided the odds fall to 3/1 or less).

As usual, I will post the result as soon as the race has finished.

And Good to Know drifts out to 6/1 and was therefore a no bet. This was just as well given that it won by a head. That, folks is what value is all about.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 21
Number of No Bets: 13

Winning Bets: 6
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 75%

Profit/Loss: +£0.26

Return on Investment: +3.25%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 21

Winning Bets: 16
Losing Bets: 5

Strike Rate: 76.19%

Profit/Loss: -£0.51

Return on Investment: -2.6%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of -2.6%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 3.25%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Lexi's Boy. It runs in the 3:05 at Sedgefield. It may come close but I think that the best that we can expect is a brave second. Therefore, lay the selection to lose if the odds fall to less than 11/4.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Lexi's Boy. It runs in the 3:05 at Sedgefield. It may come close but I think that the best that we can expect is a brave second. Therefore, lay the selection to lose if the odds fall to less than 11/4.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

Lexi's Boy drifts out to 3/1 and comes a distant last. Unfortunately, the 3/1 meant that it had poor value and therefore wasn't a bet. Pity.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 22
Number of No Bets: 14

Winning Bets: 6
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 75%

Profit/Loss: +£0.26

Return on Investment: +3.25%

Here's the stats based on ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 22

Winning Bets: 17
Losing Bets: 5

Strike Rate: 77.27%

Profit/Loss: -£0.23

Return on Investment: -1.1%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of -1.1%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 3.25%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Josies Orders. It runs in the 4:10 at Cheltenham. It has won at Cheltenham the last two times that it ran there. Today, it may run out of luck. Therefore, lay the selection to lose if the odds fall to less than 11/4.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Josies Orders. It runs in the 4:10 at Cheltenham. It has won at Cheltenham the last two times that it ran there. Today, it may run out of luck. Therefore, lay the selection to lose if the odds fall to less than 11/4.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And the horse gets sent off the 15/8 favourite and only comes second and so we have another winning bet because we layed it to lose.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 23
Number of No Bets: 14

Winning Bets: 7
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 77.8%

Profit/Loss: +£0.72

Return on Investment: +8.70%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 23

Winning Bets: 18
Losing Bets: 5

Strike Rate: 78.26%

Profit/Loss: +£0.23

Return on Investment: +1.1%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of +1.1%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 8.70%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Camdora. It runs in the 8:20 at Chelmsford. It has won at Chelmsford and at this distance before but its rise in the weights means that it isn't as competitive as it need to be to win this one, Therefore, lay the selection to lose if the odds fall to 3/1 or less.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection is Camdora. It runs in the 8:20 at Chelmsford. It has won at Chelmsford and at this distance before but its rise in the weights means that it isn't as competitive as it need to be to win this one, Therefore, lay the selection to lose if the odds fall to 3/1 or less.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Camdora drifts out to 9/2 and comes nowhere. However, it was a no bet given that its odds were > 3/1.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 24
Number of No Bets: 15

Winning Bets: 7
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 77.8%

Profit/Loss: +£0.72

Return on Investment: +8.70%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 24

Winning Bets: 19
Losing Bets: 5

Strike Rate: 79.17%

Profit/Loss: +£0.41

Return on Investment: +1.8%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of +1.8%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 8.70%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

I have scoured today's races and am unable to find a satisfactory selection. So, on the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs at Newcastle in the 5:10 race. It is Imperial Prince. Lay the horse to lose if the odds fall below 11/8.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs at Newcastle in the 5:10 race. It is Imperial Prince. Lay the horse to lose if the odds fall below 11/8.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Imperial Prince drifts out to 7/4 and was therefore not a bet - which is just as well given that it was an easy winner.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 25
Number of No Bets: 16

Winning Bets: 7
Losing Bets: 2

Strike Rate: 77.8%

Profit/Loss: +£0.72

Return on Investment: +8.70%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 25

Winning Bets: 19
Losing Bets: 6

Strike Rate: 76.200%

Profit/Loss: -£0.59

Return on Investment: -2.6%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of -2.6%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 8.70%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 2:55 at Downpatrick - De Plotting Shed. It's carrying too much weight for the ground. It will be there or thereabouts but may well fade late on in the race. Lay it if the odds are less than 15/8.

As usual, I'll post the results after the race.