Mondrian's Blog

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selections run in the 2:00 race at Exeter. They are Romeo is bleeding and Apache outlaw. If the odds of either of these two horses falls to less than 11/4 just before the off, then lay them to lose. If both fall to < 11/4, lay both horses to lose. Otherwise, leave them alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Apache Outlaw gets sent off at 5/2 and comes nowhere. It was a bet and we have another winner in the bag.

And Romeo is Bleeding gets sent off at 4/1 and comes nowhere. Great pity because it was a no bet because the odds were too high.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 33
Number of No Bets: 20

Winning Bets: 10
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 76.92%

Profit/Loss: +£1.61

Return on Investment: +12.39%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 33

Winning Bets: 25
Losing Bets: 8

Strike Rate: 75.76%

Profit/Loss: -£0.01

Return on Investment: -0.03%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a loss of 0.03%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 12.39%

However, we have so few bets at the moment that the results are subject to major change.

On the morrow malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 2:40 race at Wetherby. It is Tsar Alexandre. If the odds of it falls to 3/1 or less, then lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 2:40 race at Wetherby. It is Tsar Alexandre. If the odds of it falls to 3/1 or less, then lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Tsar Alexandre's odds fall to 3/1 and so was a bet. This is just as well since the horse faded late on and comes nowhere and we have another winning bet in the bag.


Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 34
Number of No Bets: 20

Winning Bets: 11
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 78.57%

Profit/Loss: +£1.89

Return on Investment: +13.50%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 34

Winning Bets: 26
Losing Bets: 8

Strike Rate: 76.47%

Profit/Loss: +£0.27

Return on Investment: +0.78%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 0.78%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 13.50%

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 4:45 race at Limerick. It is The Conker Club. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less just before the off, then lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 4:45 race at Limerick. It is The Conker Club. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less just before the off, then lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And The Conker Club was sent off at 4/1 and so was a no bet. Unfortunately, the selection came nowhere.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 35
Number of No Bets: 21

Winning Bets: 11
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 78.57%

Profit/Loss: +£1.89

Return on Investment: +13.50%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 35

Winning Bets: 27
Losing Bets: 8

Strike Rate: 77.14%

Profit/Loss: +£0.47

Return on Investment: +1.35%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 1.35%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 13.50%

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 4:20 race at Lingfield. It is The Diamond Lady. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less just before the off, then lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 4:20 race at Lingfield. It is Diamond Lady. If the odds fall to 3/1 or less just before the off, then lay it to lose. Otherwise, leave it alone.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.

And Diamond Lady drifts out to 5/1 and therefore was a no bet. Unfortunately it came second and we would therefore have won our bet.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 36
Number of No Bets: 22

Winning Bets: 11
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 78.57%

Profit/Loss: +£1.89

Return on Investment: +13.50%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 36

Winning Bets: 28
Losing Bets: 8

Strike Rate: 77.78%

Profit/Loss: +£0.63

Return on Investment: +1.75%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 1.75%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 13.50%

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are two selections today. The first is Second Serve and runs in the 3:10 at Lingfield. Lay it to lose if the odds are less than 5/2. The second is Flying Fantasy and runs in the 5:15 at Lingfield. Lay it to lose if the odds are less than 2/1.

As usual, I will post the results after the races have been run.

[Stephynbouby]

There are two selections today. The first is Second Serve and runs in the 3:10 at Lingfield. Lay it to lose if the odds are less than 5/2. The second is Flying Fantasy and runs in the 5:15 at Lingfield. Lay it to lose if the odds are less than 2/1.

As usual, I will post the results after the races have been run.

And Second Serve drifts out to 7/2 and therefore was a no bet. Unfortunately it came second and we would therefore have won our bet.

And Flying Fantasy drifts out to 9/4 and therefore was a no bet. Unfortunately it came nowhere and we would therefore have won our bet.

Here's the stats based on Value:

Number of Tips: 38
Number of No Bets: 24

Winning Bets: 11
Losing Bets: 3

Strike Rate: 78.57%

Profit/Loss: +£1.89

Return on Investment: +13.50%

Here's the stats based ignoring value:

Number of Tips: 38

Winning Bets: 30
Losing Bets: 8

Strike Rate: 78.95%

Profit/Loss: +£1.23

Return on Investment: +3.25%

This assumes laying for a liability of £1 at exchange odds and 5% commission paid on winnings.

Ignoring value, we make a profit of 3.25%

Not ignoring value gives a profit of 13.50%

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

There are no selections today.

On the morrow, malchicks.

[Stephynbouby]

Today's selection runs in the 2:00 race at Lingfield and is Baileys Mirage. If it's odds close to the off are less than 11/8, lay it to lose.

As usual, I will post the results after the race.